rss feedBlack Friday arrived Tuesday, in the mail
For the holiday 2009 shopping season that kicks off the day after Thanksgiving, flat might be the new black.
As in: Analysts and businesspeople hope sales, at the least, remain flat compared to last year – which was a historic low in decades.
The reason is clear: Flat trumps a drop in sales.
The message of saving – and saving big – during The Great Recession hit home Tuesday when I pulled out a handful of printed advertisements from my mailbox.
Yes, there are probably many holiday savings listed on Web sites.
I just happened to notice the ones that were printed on paper and stuffed into my mailbox.
There were enticing phrases, including some from IKEA, which read:
- “NEW LOWER PRICE”
- “SEIZE THE DAY”
- “SAVE BIG IN NOVEMBER!”
- “GET IT FREE! FOR 3 MONTHS”
- “SWEDISH MEATBALL PLATE FOR JUST $1″
You get the idea.
And if you have a few extra dollars or are willing to fuel the country’s market economy – which is something we need – starting on Black Friday, more power to you.
I know those who are working, looking for employment and businesses are grateful when dollars circulate.
But since context is important – and I don’t mean to include a downer here – we should keep in mind that unemployment is at record highs and is likely greater when you take into account those who have stopped looking and aren’t counted in statistics.
Yes, it appears that the recession – which had at least four straight quarters of economic contraction – might be over and there have been some reports of factory orders increasing and consumer spending bumping up.
The mortgage debacle continues and people are doing whatever they can – including flying early for Thanksgiving – to save money.
All of this considered, welcome to Black Friday 2009.
The advertisements listing discounts of around 70 percent should entice enough people to open their wallets to reach for greenbacks or credit cards.
But an added incentive stands out in particular this year: The psychology of the free.
This is in comparison to the psychology of fear (See and hear President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s famous phrase), which can freeze up credit markets and spending, especially when those who have jobs and money see others around them become unemployed.
OK, back to IKEA.
At most IKEA outlets, for instance, you can use a coupon to get a free breakfast until 10:30 a.m. from Friday, Nov. 27 to Sunday, Nov. 29.
Great! Right?
Food while you shop!
If IKEA officials really want to attract customers, they should offer a free massage and the advertised Black Friday prices until Black Friday 2010.
Product, as the saying goes, would fly out the doors.
But back to the free breakfast offer.
If you read the coupon, though, you realize that the breakfast is limited to one per customer and consists of a small meal that includes eggs (value of 99 cents) and one coffee (value 99 cents).
Then, after 11 a.m. on Black Friday at most IKEA outlets, the food deal is for 10 “mouthwatering” Swedish meatballs, mashed potatoes and cream sauce.
The price: $1.
The dish usually sells for $4.29.
Of course, this is nice for IKEA officials to offer such low food prices to people who are shopping.
If you consider it by volume, IKEA outlets will probably absorb losses with these food deals and discounts.
But if you consider that shoppers are in the store, ready to find deals during The Great Recession and that volume sales can help bring in dollars (which might offset any discount you receive), then it makes sense.
And what kind of deals is IKEA offering from Black Friday through Sunday?
I should note that I actually shop at IKEA and only use the store as an example because it’s so popular and it has stores nationwide.
In fact, the table that is pictured in the photograph above is from – you guessed it – IKEA!
Well, let’s go to the big board (meaning, let’s look at the printed advertisement that landed in my mailbox) for some samples:
On Friday, Nov. 27 at IKEA, while supplies last:
- A set of SVALKA red wine glasses is selling for $1.99, a savings of 60 percent from the normal price of $4.99 (Limit of two sets per customer). The online advertisement lists the price at $5.99, which makes for an even greater savings if these items are the same.
- The LEKSVIK coffee table will be priced at $59, half off the normal price tag of $119.
On Sunday, Nov. 29 at IKEA, while supplies last:
- A 20-piece CHARMIG flatware set consisting of two types of forks, a knife and two types of spoons can be yours for $9.99, instead of the regular price of $39.99. That’s a savings of 75 percent. When I looked, the online link for the set was broken.
Goodyear Auto Service Centers in the Seattle area are offering a “PRICE MATCH GUARANTEE!” on tires. It appears the offer is good for November.
Saving money always is a good thing.
But I have questioned the logic of price matching, noting that undercutting and not meeting a price might actually spur sales.
Cases in point:
Have you ever bought something at tourist markets in other countries, particularly ones in China?
Or, have you ever bought a house or condominium in the United States and realized that matching someone else’s price doesn’t necessarily close the deal?
One question that I still have not found an answer is this: What is the balance between discounting products or services to boost sales (which we need during The Great Recession) and making sure that a company can pull in enough sale dollars to actually cover costs, pay employees (well, I hope) and deposit a profit?
In terms of anecdotes, I read that some U.S. buyers want lower prices for blue jeans that are made in China.
They reportedly offered one Chinese factory representative $2.85 per pair instead of a price of $7.
As I’ve said before: A new American price is emerging from this economic downturn.
Whether it will actually stick for the near or long term remains to be seen.
I think that’s based, partially, on any recovery and the salaries and wages that are offered when the economy grows.
It’s also good to add that when times are booming and salaries are climbing beyond expectation, prices – especially for housing – can go up.
Obviously, The Great Recession has brought about changes and shocks to just about everyone in the United States.
Even President Obama has uttered the words – double-dip recession - in a general sense in a televised interview.
I also realize that little, simple things can make people happy.
That is something all of us need, especially during Thanksgiving and the December holidays.
Right?
So in that light, if buying a set of six IKEA red wine glasses for $1.99 – instead of the regular price of $4.99 - brings a smile to your face and gives you an extra bounce on what might be a crowded Black Friday, then, please enjoy the moment.
After you buy those wine glasses, call your friends, email them or post a message on Facebook, telling everyone of the great buy you made.
In the end, value and happiness depend on your own state of mind.
But one note: It probably is a good idea to read the fine print of your mortgage papers before you sign them and the agreement and interest rate that your credit card company is offering you.
That said, one last phrase for Black Friday: Let the games begin! Enjoy!
Have a great Thanksgiving!
UPDATE: Reuters has a report out, saying holiday sales could down 3 percent or up 2 percent. A Reuters graph shows holiday sales, which might drop 1 percent this year.
