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Google rolls the dice, lifts censorship in China, shifts servers to Hong Kong

Consider Google’s decision to stop censoring its Google.cn site and shift its servers to Hong Kong, both of which were announced Monday, as just a point on a very long line.

This is fascinating. But it is, by no means, the end point.

The Associated Press, in its report, called it a way around censorship. The New York Times moved a version of this historic episode regarding the Internet.

If there’s anything to remember about the epic view of Chinese history in this wave-making incident, it’s that, well, senior leaders have a good memory.

Just as leaders in any country like to win, they also are happy when they get their way.

Not everyone in China is enjoying the benefits of staggering economic growth in that country.

But the country is expected to become the world’s second largest economy, one with an Internet market of an estimated 384 million people.

Certainly, that number could grow in the coming years.

And the elite in China are chasing brand names, owning multiple homes, traveling the world and leading remarkable companies, such as Baidu, the Internet search engine leader in that country.

But consider that while the British ruled Hong Kong for about 150 years – and actually instituted some reasonable policies and procedures there – senior Chinese leaders achieved their goal of having the former colony return.

And interestingly enough, it’s in this former colony that the Mountain View, Calif. company will run its unfiltered Google.cn.

It’s only a few hours after Google posted its move on its corporate blog. Chinese news outlets are running with the basics.

(UPDATE: The Chinese government has responded, saying Google’s decision is wrong. The White House issued a statement, too.)

But Xinhua, a state-run news agency, is noting that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao might be looking for some middle ground on contentious U.S.-China issues, including trade and currency, in a May meeting.

But who knows?

That meeting needs to take place and actions must follow words.

And in regards to this specific incident: The people who work at Google are pretty bright, too. 

Here are actions or issues that I’ll be watching in the Google-China issue, which shook the online world and global capitals in January:

1. CHINESE CENSORSHIP REMAINS POSSIBLE

Even though Google has moved its servers to Hong Kong, a bustling free port, censorship can still take place.

Google knows this.

From the Monday announcement:

We very much hope that the Chinese government respects our decision, though we are well aware that it could at any time block access to our services.

Google certainly had to follow through on its January announcement – which many in the United States praised.

But it’s always eye-catching when corporate leaders publicly use the word “hope” in conjunction with the reaction from senior Chinese leaders.

I think corporate and government leaders often like to know – with a high degree of certainty – things and reactions before they publicly comment on them.

I also realize that censorship can occur because years ago, I was resting in an inexpensive guesthouse in Guangzhou.

I was watching English-language news from Hong Kong and the report was about human rights or democracy, when I saw a few seconds of the dispatch.

A gray screen popped up for a few minutes. It disappeared after that report ended.

2. CHINESE REACTION – BOTH OVERT AND COVERT

It could surface quite fast or take form in smaller, but noticeable, ways over the coming days and weeks.

(UPDATE: See first update above. The Chinese government is critical of Google’s move and the response was swift).

Did senior Chinese leaders lose face in all of this?

Already, they were saying that all countries don’t allow a true free flow of information on the Internet. Therefore, according to this logic, China doesn’t have to do so, as well.

The Chinese government could, as some reports have noted, put pressure on Google’s partners in China.

Even before this announcement, Chinese leaders were talking about how a Google exit really would not affect international investment in China, according to Xinhua.

The message was clear: Google might be upset.

But China remains a powerful enough draw for other companies and countries to do business in the Middle Kingdom.

One illogical argument that I’ve seen from Chinese leaders is this: They say Google is trying to impose its values and ideas on China and its people.

Yet, if this were true, shouldn’t senior Chinese leaders have rejected Google’s efforts to enter the country years ago, before it even planted its logo on China’s soil and the hacking news surfaced?

And if senior Chinese leaders are truly upset with Google, what type of actions will they take to return the favor to the corporate officers in Mountain View, Calif.?

After all, why didn’t the leaders of those 20 other U.S. companies take their concerns public?

3. WHO HACKED GOOGLE?

This still remains a mystery – at least to most people.

After Google announced the attacks in January, I wrote that this key question – central to any crime, besides motive – would be pushed aside in a wave of rhetoric.

The Chinese government has denied involvement and so have the two Chinese universities that U.S. authorities suspect might have been involved.

Senior Chinese leaders probably have noted – many times over, in their minds – that the National Security Agency worked with Google in investigating the cases.

If these hackers were so brave and bold to hit Google – in addition to about 20 other U.S. companies, which have to my knowledge, remained silent – do they have the gumption to truly up this chess game?

As in: Go after Google again – to prove a point.

Isn’t that part of the motive of hackers?

4. BOAO FORUM

This is a prestigious forum for world leaders, academics, analysts and other movers and shakers.

Well, the organization will have its next meeting from April 9 to 11 on the Chinese island of Hainan, which is near Guangdong province.

The topic will be on sustainable growth and China has made news for its efforts to play in this economic space.

But in the hallways or in hushed conversations, I wonder what government and corporate leaders will say – if they even do so – about Google and China and overall tensions between the United States and the People’s Republic of China.

They might stick to polite talk and just watch people’s facial reactions and body English and parse what was said in public to gauge a sense of reality.

5. GOOGLE’S APPROACH

Google’s approach is more of a nuanced, middle step – if that’s actually possible to say, given all of the rhetoric in this case.

They could have pulled out completely.

But the company was probably smart enough to know that there are many brilliant people in China – who make for some terrific employees.

From the company’s blog:

In terms of Google’s wider business operations, we intend to continue R&D work in China and also to maintain a sales presence there, though the size of the sales team will obviously be partially dependent on the ability of mainland Chinese users to access Google.com.hk. Finally, we would like to make clear that all these decisions have been driven and implemented by our executives in the United States, and that none of our employees in China can, or should, be held responsible for them.

Clearly, company leaders in California wanted to give their employees in China enough protection – at least in words – so that they can continue to work in that country.

Since the news broke in January, I have heard from a source – and the company reiterated this in its Monday announcement – that the cyber attacks were “sophisticated.”

They were so sophisticated that Google’s employees had to take extra security steps before they could do their work.

One question I often wonder about:

In the 1990s, senior Chinese leaders opened their doors and the country to international investment and global friendship.

There were huge banquets. Western business leaders were treated to lavish dinners, five-star hotels with staff workers swirling about and meetings with speeches, banners, handshakes and smiles for the camera.

What happened?

Why the change?

I should note, too, that relatives of senior Chinese leaders have come to the United States to enjoy opportunities in education and work.

And U.S. and international citizens have traveled to China to do the same.

There is nothing wrong with that, though some have been caught up in a messy life that high stakes can bring.

What is noteworthy, though, in the case of relatives of senior Chinese leaders is that they actually enjoy the benefits of a more open society in the United States – one with a much more open information flow. Yes, I understand they probably contribute to this country, as well.

But yet, senior Chinese leaders have decided that an open society in that country should apply largely to economic and business matters.

But Google might be right in a sense: That the Internet is changing China.

In recent months, my mom has taken to watching epic Korean soap operas – full of good and bad characters and stylish clothing.

I think, though, that watching U.S.-China relations is so much more compelling and intriguing.

Did I remind you that Chinese President Hu Jintao is scheduled to visit President Barack Obama in Washington, D.C. this year?

Stay tuned.

If you’re interested, here are my previous posts on Google in China.

And here’s a guest post I did for TechFlash about the topic in January.